3 out of 4 exit polls predict BJP’s win
Kolkata/Agartala April 29: Exit polls for the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections suggest a historic political shift. Three major agencies—Matrize, P-Marq, and Poll Diary—project a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) victory, potentially unseating Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). With high voter turnout recorded, the saffron party appears close to crossing the 148-seat majority mark.
Quick Glance: Key Highlights
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BJP Surge: Three out of four major pollsters predict the BJP will surpass the majority threshold in the 294-member assembly.
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TMC Resilience: Only People’s Pulse projects a Trinamool victory, suggesting a fourth term for Mamata Banerjee with up to 187 seats.
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Voter Turnout: Massive democratic participation saw 93% polling in the first phase and nearly 90% in the second phase.
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Third Front Decimation: Congress and Left parties are projected to remain marginal, securing fewer than 10 seats combined.
Exit Poll Data: Projected Seat Share
The following table highlights the projections from major agencies for the 294-seat West Bengal Assembly:
| Agency | BJP Projection | TMC Projection | Others/Left |
| Matrize | 146–161 | 125–160 | 6–10 |
| P-Marq | 150–175 | 118–138 | 5–8 |
| Poll Diary | 142–171 | 99–127 | 5–10 |
| People’s Pulse | 95–100 | 177–187 | 3–7 |
Detailed Analysis: A Two-Horse Race in Bengal
The Saffron Wave and Majority Projections
The data suggests that the BJP’s relentless campaign in West Bengal has significantly moved the needle. Agencies like P-Marq project the BJP reaching as high as 175 seats, well above the 148 needed for a simple majority. This trend indicates that the party has successfully converted its 2024 Lok Sabha momentum into assembly-level gains, particularly in rural and semi-urban belts where the TMC previously held sway.
Mamata’s Stronghold Under Pressure
While the majority of pollsters favor a regime change, the People’s Pulse exit poll offers a contrasting view, suggesting the Trinamool Congress could retain power with a comfortable margin of 177–187 seats. This disparity highlights the “silent voter” factor that often defines Bengal politics. If the TMC retains power, it would mark a historic fourth consecutive term for Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, cementing her status as a formidable regional force against the central machinery of the BJP.
The Collapse of the Left and Congress
One of the most striking takeaways from the 2026 exit polls is the near-total disappearance of the Left-Congress alliance. Once the dominant force in Bengal, these parties are now relegated to single-digit projections.
This shift confirms that the electorate has polarized almost entirely between the TMC’s localized welfare model and the BJP’s “Asol Poriborton” (Real Change) narrative.
Record Voter Turnout: What It Signifies
High voter turnout often indicates a strong anti-incumbency wave or a highly energized base. With the first phase recording 93% polling and the second phase hitting 89.99% (tentative), the intensity of the contest is undeniable.
The Election Commission’s strict security measures ensured that voters turned out in droves despite the heated political climate.
People Also Ask (FAQ)
Q1: Who is predicted to win the West Bengal Election 2026? According to three out of four major exit polls (Matrize, P-Marq, and Poll Diary), the BJP is projected to win. However, People’s Pulse predicts a TMC victory.
Q2: What is the majority mark in West Bengal Assembly? The West Bengal Legislative Assembly has 294 seats; therefore, any party or coalition needs at least 148 seats to form a government.
Q3: How many seats are the Left and Congress expected to get? Most pollsters suggest the Left and Congress will struggle to reach double digits, with estimates ranging between 5 to 10 seats.