Leaders from the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Opposition Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPIM] are in the midst of fervent campaigns within the Boxanagar and Dhanpur Assembly Constituencies in Tripura, for the upcoming by-polls scheduled for September 5.
Heading the saffron-hued campaign is Chief Minister Dr. Manik Saha, accompanied by Union Ministers of State, State Ministers, party MLAs and other prominent leaders. Concurrently, CPIM has dispatched its own cadre of leaders to advocate for their party’s candidates contesting in the two constituencies located under the Sonamura sub-division.
However, the defection of Billal Mia from the Congress party to the BJP changed the entire scenario – it dealt a significant blow to CPIM’s prospects, especially in the Muslim-majority Boxanagar constituency.
Mia, a notable Muslim leader of Sonamura within the Tripura Pradesh Congress, held considerable sway over a substantial following. On August 23, Billal Mia formally left the Congress party, subsequently aligning himself with the BJP along with approximately 8000 voters, according to BJP sources.
Furthermore, due to a strategic seat-sharing agreement between CPIM and Congress during the 2023 Assembly polls, the latter refrained from fielding candidates in several constituencies including Boxanagar and Dhanpur.
Many conjecture that Billal Mia’s influence was instrumental in garnering support for CPIM’s candidate in Boxanagar, Samsul Haque, leading to CPIM’s triumph. If this hypothesis holds true, it raises valid concerns for the CPIM’s by-poll prospect.
Samsul Haque secured victory with a margin exceeding 4800 votes. If it is indeed the case that a significant proportion of the 8000 voters who joined BJP alongside Billal Mia previously voted for CPIM in the Assembly polls, but now, having switched to the saffron party, will opt for the BJP candidate, particularly in Boxanagar, CPIM would be confronted with a substantial challenge in the by-elections.
The influx of defected voters stands to greatly benefit the BJP, while delivering a significant setback to CPIM, which is striving to maintain its stronghold.
Interestingly, the CPIM’s campaign in Boxanagar and Dhanpur seems to lack the fervor exhibited by its rival BJP. The resounding voices of CPIM State Secretary and CPIM Politburo member Manik Sarkar, who clinched successive terms from Dhanpur, are seldom heard.
In contrast, the BJP’s senior leaders are consistently engaging in campaign activities. It appears CPIM’s efforts are centered on smaller gatherings and rallies instead of more aggressive large scale gatherings and speeches by eminent party leaders frequently.
The Congress State leadership has refrained from active involvement in favor of CPIM, and the TIPRA Motha Party’s stance remains indecisive, as is frequently observed. The party’s leaders seem to be holding off until the by-elections conclude.
Given the circumstances, a more robust and assertive campaign was anticipated from CPIM. With Congress not in the equation, it was anticipated that CPIM would bring forth its youth and student leaders, presenting a formidable challenge. However, the majority of the campaign responsibilities have fallen upon a limited number of leaders from Sepahijala and Gomati Districts – apparently lacking the energy the Left parties display during elections.
As the by-election results draw near (to be announced on September 8), the intensity of the campaigns underscores the BJP’s considerable lead over its rival, CPIM.