New Delhi, June 18 (IANS) For years now, the trouble-prone Middle East has witnessed a triangular conflict between Israel, Iran and the Arab states of the Gulf — principally Saudi Arabia and the UAE — with the US, China and Russia lending their support to the rival sides depending upon the geopolitical developments at a given point of time.
The Gulf states are the traditional allies of the US, while Iran has steadily shifted to the China-Russia camp. Israel continues to receive unconditional backing from the US, and the Trump Presidency has even tried to bring about an understanding of Israel with the UAE through the so-called Abraham Accords — leaving the scope for Saudi Arabia also signing in later. At present, however, confrontation between Israel and Iran is at its peak, and because of the total support of the Trump administration for Israel and behind-the-scenes involvement of the China-Russia axis in favour of Iran, the escalating tension in the Middle East would have the potential for causing a global level conflict.
Following the terror attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7 2023, Israel launched a war in Gaza in which more than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed so far. The humanitarian crisis created in Gaza has drawn attention of the entire world and compelled Israel to develop a plan of distributing aid to civilians through hubs controlled by it. Confident of an unflinching support from President Trump, Israel has refused to accept the idea of a ceasefire. Meanwhile, a radicalised Hamas has been embraced by Iran, which has added to the strength of the Islamic Republic against Israel. President Trump has resolved to find a way out of the Middle East crisis and made his first foreign visit of the second term to this region in May.
Following a surprise meeting with the non-radical new Syrian President, Ahmad Al Sharra, Trump lifted economic sanctions on Syria, and this led to celebrations across that country. In other bold steps, Trump initiated the signing of a ceasefire with the Houthis of Yemen and moved for holding direct talks with Iran- these were welcomed by Arab states but opposed by Israel. Unsurprisingly, the Arab states of the Gulf, on seeing Iran emerging as the predominant regional force — particularly after Hamas had become another of Iran’s proxies — were inclined to normalise their relationship with Israel. However, in the current escalation of the Israel-Iran confrontation, they have felt equally concerned over the rise of Israel as a regional hegemon.
Israel looks upon the proposed new nuclear deal with Iran pursued by Trump as ‘a lifeline for the Islamic Republic’ and wants the US to take military action to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. The Gulf states favour a diplomatic resolution that can make Tehran a vital player in regional security and stability. They do not want a Middle East in which Israel has a free rein. The Arab states support Trump’s push for a new nuclear deal with Iran. It appears that there is an Islam — Zionism undercurrent conditioning the developments in the Middle East — going beyond the Sunni-Shia sectarian divide.
The current escalation of military confrontation between Israel and Iran is occurring in the backdrop of President Trump’s typically hyperbolic statements on how Iran was being ‘given an opportunity’ to accept a deal with the US and the perception of Israel that US ‘would understand’ if Israel launched a missile attack on Iran to build ‘pressure’ on the Islamic Republic to come to terms with the suggested nuclear deal. In the early hours of Friday (June 13), Israel extensively bombed the Iranian capital, killing 220 persons, including women and children and damaging a nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz. The intelligence chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and two other Generals were also killed in the bombing on Tehran.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that his air force was in control of the skies over Tehran and that ‘we are on our way to achieving our two main objectives — eradicating the nuclear threat from Iran and eliminating its missile threat as well’. President Trump responded to Israeli strikes on Tehran by stating that ‘Iran had a second chance to accept the nuclear deal and avoid further destruction before nothing was left of what was once known as the Iranian Empire’. While the US Administration clarified that it had no involvement in the Israeli strikes, President Trump highlighted the fact that Israel used ‘its deep arsenal provided by the US to hit main targets in Iran’. On its part, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi warned that the US would be held responsible for any attack from Israel.
Iran launched a new wave of drone and missile attacks on Tel Aviv and Haifa hours after the Israeli offensive — nearly 350 missiles were used by Iran in the counter-offensive, as a result of which at least 34 Israelis were killed. President Trump, who has cut short his visit to Canada for the G7 Summit by a day because of Middle East developments, reiterated that Iran should talk to Israel for de-escalating the conflict ‘before it was too late’. On the other hand, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu added fuel to the fire by saying that ‘killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will end the conflict’. Iran called off talks with the US on the nuclear deal scheduled for June 15, but the Iranian Foreign Minister appealed to the US President to push Israel — which was ‘a phone call away from Washington’ — to a ceasefire to end the aerial war. The Arab states of the Gulf do not want a disaster in the region and favour a cessation of hostilities.
President Trump is apparently convinced that Iran would blink first. Considering the fact that this ‘war’ was getting rooted in motivation driven by religious fundamentalism on one side and a sense of survival in the Zionist state on the other, it can produce an unpredictable outcome and cause an unpleasant surprise to the world. From India’s point of view, it is a matter of concern that Pakistan has sided with Iran on the grounds of the latter being an Islamic Republic deserved full support from the Muslim countries. This adds to the religious orientation of the Iran-Israel conflict. It also connects with the Sino-Pak strategic alliance, considering that Iran enjoyed the backing of China and Russia in its confrontation with Israel. India has stakes in the Middle East and should be favouring immediate de-escalation of the Iran-Israel military confrontation.
(The writer is a former Director Intelligence Bureau)
–IANS
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