Assam Politics : JMM Expansion Plans Add New Twist
Agartala/Guwahati Dec 27: As preparations intensify for the 2026 Assembly elections, Assam’s political landscape is witnessing new fault lines within the Opposition camp, triggered by the evolving strategies of regional and identity-based parties.
The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), traditionally confined to Jharkhand politics, has emerged as an unexpected variable after signalling its intent to explore electoral opportunities in Assam’s tribal-dominated belts. The move has raised eyebrows among anti-BJP parties already grappling with complex alliance equations in the state.
Sources indicate that the JMM leadership is keen to assess the political terrain in Assam through an on-ground study, aimed at understanding voter dynamics in constituencies with substantial tribal populations.
Party insiders view the outreach as part of a long-term plan to establish relevance beyond Jharkhand and gradually build a pan-tribal political footprint across eastern and central India.
This development comes at a time when the Opposition space in Assam is already under pressure due to unresolved alliance uncertainties. The silence of AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal on whether his party will return to the Congress-led Mahajot has further complicated calculations for 2026.
Ajmal’s fluctuating position has kept both allies and rivals guessing, weakening efforts to present a unified challenge to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
Political analysts warn that the absence of a cohesive Opposition strategy could fragment votes in several key regions, particularly in tribal and minority-dominated constituencies. Such divisions, they argue, may inadvertently work in favour of the NDA, which has so far demonstrated greater discipline in seat-sharing and alliance management.
IANS reported, Assam’s demographic composition underscores the importance of tribal politics. As per the 2011 Census, Scheduled Tribes constitute over 12 per cent of the state’s population, with the overwhelming majority residing in rural areas. Communities such as the Bodo, Karbi, Mishing, Rabha, Dimasa and Garo wield considerable influence in electoral outcomes across multiple districts.
Out of 126 Assembly seats, 19 are reserved for Scheduled Tribes, making them a decisive factor in government formation. However, tribal regions have also been flashpoints for social and political tension, with recurring conflicts reported between indigenous communities and settlers in parts of Lower Assam and Karbi Anglong.
The state’s tribal political space is already occupied by well-entrenched regional outfits and autonomous council-based parties. Groups like the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) and the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) have demonstrated their electoral clout in the Bodoland Territorial Region, often emerging as kingmakers in closely contested elections.
In the 2021 Assembly polls, UPPL secured six seats as part of the NDA, while the BPF, after parting ways with the BJP, aligned with the Congress-led Mahajot and won four seats. These regional formations continue to command loyalty among specific ethnic groups, leaving limited space for new entrants without strategic alliances.
The AIUDF, meanwhile, remains a dominant force in Muslim-majority pockets of Lower Assam and the Barak Valley. In the previous election, the party performed strongly in the constituencies it contested, reinforcing its role as a critical stakeholder in Opposition arithmetic. Yet, its future course—whether independent, aligned with Congress, or tactically coordinated with parties like the AIMIM—remains unclear.
The Congress, despite improving its tally in 2021, faces the challenge of holding together a broad coalition of diverse political interests. Any erosion of support from regional allies or minority-focused parties could weaken its prospects in a multi-cornered contest.
In contrast, the BJP enters the next election with the advantage of incumbency and a relatively stable alliance structure. The NDA’s success in securing a second consecutive term in 2021 marked a turning point in Assam’s political history and highlighted the effectiveness of its coalition strategy.
With new players testing the waters and existing allies reassessing their positions, Assam appears headed for a highly fragmented electoral battle. Whether the Opposition can overcome internal contradictions or whether divided loyalties will once again tilt the balance in favour of the ruling alliance remains a question that will shape the road to 2026.