With less than a week remaining before the by-polls in Dhanpur and Boxanagar on September 5, the ruling BJP in Tripura has garnered a significant advantage, dealing a substantial blow to opposition parties – CPIM and TIPRA Motha Party (TMP) – in the Dhanpur Constituency on Wednesday.

In a post on the platform X (formerly known as Twitter), Rebati Tripura, the BJP MP from East Tripura, announced that approximately 700 voters from 171 families affiliated with TMP have joined the BJP in Taibandal, a part of the Dhanpur constituency during a joining programme today.

The event saw the presence of prominent figures including Rebati Tripura, Rajya Sabha MP Biplab Kumar Deb, Union MoS Pratima Bhoumik, as well as Ministers Ratan Lal Nath, Bikas Debbarma and others along with BJP State president Rajib Bhattacharjee, MLA Ramapada Jamatia and others.

This development carries significant political implications. The decision of TMP, the main opposition party in Tripura, to abstain from participating in the upcoming by-polls has led to a sense of demoralization among its supporters.

TMP ascended to the second largest political party in the State with a promise of the ‘Greater Tipraland’. However, after the last Assembly polls were over, desperation started gripping the supporters which was accentuated into frustration after Pradyot Kishor Debbarma, the founder Chairman relinquished his chairmanship and passed the baton of the party to veteran Bijoy Hrankhwal.

Meantime, TMP supporters grew disillusioned as the party engaged in discussions with CPIM and Congress regarding opposition unity against the BJP in the by-polls. This initiative bore no fruit, and later, TMP decided to abstain from the by-polls.

Adding to the confusion, TMP leaders kept their stance ambiguous, leaving supporters uncertain about whether it is with the BJP or CPIM in the by-polls. This uncertainty has made supporters bewildered and irked.

During the previous Assembly Polls, the TMP candidate secured 8671 votes, whereas the victorious BJP candidate, Pratima Bhoumik, obtained 19148 votes and Kaushik Chanda of CPIM secured 15648 votes. Bhoumik won the seat by a margin of 3,500 votes.  

For obvious reasons, BJP and CPIM jumped into Janajati-dominated areas like Taibandal with full force to woo the Janajati electorates. Finally, a sizeable portion decided to quit the TMP and formally jump into the saffron camp today.

Importantly, it is not just grassroots TMP supporters but District and block-level leaders of TMP’s women and youth wings who also threw their weight behind the saffron party candidate and joined the BJP. According to local political pundits, there will be a cascading effect in favor of the BJP in the by-polls as well as in the ensuing LS Polls. 

Additionally, the confidence of the Left Front is likely to be shaken, as the CPIM candidate in Dhanpur is also attempting to capitalize on the ambiguous state of TMP supporters. Based on the Assembly results, CPIM desperately needs Janajati electorates’ support to snatch Dhanpur from the BJP.