TIPRA Motha Party (TMP) appears to be in dilemma, and so also the Congress.

Leaders of both parties will have to take a prompt decision regarding the upcoming by-polls in two Assembly constituencies in Tripura. Time is really very short and the leaders are tasked with picking up an option – whether to contest in the by-polls or not.  Whatever decision they make, it will be interesting to contemplate the consequences for future prospects.

The two by-poll bound Assembly constituencies – Dhanpur and Boxangar – are known as strongholds of the CPIM. In fact, in the 2018 Assembly polls, CPIM candidates won both seats. In the 2023 Polls, CPIM lost Dhanpur to BJP’s heavy-weight candidate, Union MOS Pratima Bhoumik but retained Boxanagar.

A quick glance at 2023 results reveals, at Dhanpur Bhoumik of BJP edged past CPIM’s Kaushik Chanda with a margin of 3500 votes while CPIM’s Samsul Haque defeated BJP’s Tafajjal Hossain by a margin of 4849 votes.

Congress, as part of the pre-poll seat sharing with the CPIM, did not contest these two seats. But TMP, going solo, contested in both constituencies securing 8671 votes at Dhanpur and 3010 votes in Boxanagar.  

With by-polls announced Congress and TMP sat with CPIM in quest of Opposition Unity to prevent anti-BJP votes. After CPIM announced its candidates for both constituencies, Congress and TMP – especially, the latter is facing a serious dilemma.

The TMP recorded phenomenal growth after it was founded and won the TTAADC and secured 13 Assembly seats – but for multiple reasons, the influence of the party is waning at several places including the Dhanpur and Boxanagar. Moreover, the TMP is undergoing organizational changes. At this juncture, it would be a tough call for the TMP to take a decision.

If TMP decides to stay off the contest – both CPIM and BJP will grab the opportunity and claim that TMP is aligned with them. This would create serious confusion among the supporters and leaders will have to face questions like: are we supporting CPIM or BJP candidates? The gravity of this question is huge and it may even lead to a vertical split in the TMP.  

Another possibility is that the TMP will field a candidate, at least in one seat – at Dhanpur where it polled over 8500 votes. Keeping in mind the reported dwindling support base along with the organizational restructuring initiative – it would be a herculean task for the TMP to repeat Assembly poll performance in the upcoming by-polls.

And, a dismal performance will undoubtedly further rattle its activists and may trigger large-scale defection. Moreover, a poor performance prior to the Lok Sabha polls will also significantly diminish its bargaining prospect with either the CPIM or BJP.  

“Despite all these factors, TMP is most likely to field candidates – at least in Dhanpur,” commented one Agartala-based veteran political analyst without giving further explanations.

As far as Congress is concerned, given its minuscule presence in the State – and also Dhanpur and Boxanagar, not many are concerned about the grand old party. However, a decision to support CPIM would give the ‘happy-go-lucky’ leaders some time to relax before the LS Polls.