Agartala (Tripura), July 25: As political debates over the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise gain momentum in Tripura along with other parts of the country, a deeper analysis of demographic shifts over the past five decades offers a compelling perspective.
While concerns over illegal immigration persist, Census data suggests that Tripura’s population growth rate has witnessed a sharp and consistent decline since the 1990s.
Population Surge Followed by Steady Decline
According to Census records, Tripura’s population stood at 15.56 lakh in 1971. Over the next two decades, the state recorded unprecedented growth — a 31.92% increase in 1981 and a peak of 34.30% in 1991. These figures were significantly higher than the national averages of 24.66% (1971–81) and 23.87% (1981–91), respectively.
However, a notable shift began in the 2000s. The state’s decadal growth rate fell to 16.03% in 2001 and further declined to 14.84% in 2011. During the same period, the national growth rate remained higher than Tripura’s average — 21.54% in 2001 and 17.70% in 2011 — indicating a reversal in the demographic trend where Tripura, for the first time in decades, fell below national averages.
TMP Flags Demographic Anomaly in ECI Meeting
During a recent meeting with the Election Commission of India (ECI), the Tipra Motha Party (TMP), led by Pradyot Kishore Debbarma, raised concerns about the high population growth in Tripura between 1971 and 1991.
Acknowledging the sharp rise, experts opined, the growth rate during those decades far exceeded the national average, suggesting large-scale migration from Bangladesh following the 1971 Liberation War.
TMP leaders after meeting with the ECI on this issue highlighted above-the national average population growth and said a look at the Census data from 1971 to 1991 reveals that Tripura experienced a rate of population growth far above the national average during that period.
IANS quoted TMP Minister Animesh Debbarma saying, It has become widely known that numerous illegal immigrants have managed to acquire official documents such as Electoral Photo Identity Cards (EPICs), Aadhaar cards, PAN cards, driving licences, and even passports—often through deceptive practices.
These unauthorized acquisitions were frequently facilitated by corrupt government officials, local agents, and influential political figures. In several instances, migrants were even able to alter their Register of Residence (RoR) entries, relocating them to different areas to gain electoral benefits.
What was once considered a localized issue in Tripura has now escalated into a national security concern, threatening the democratic integrity of the entire country.
Illegal immigrants illegally obtaining valid documents and becoming Indian citizen is serious matter for the welfare of society and for the security of the country.
A Lingering Debate
While the decline in growth rate from nearly 35% to around 15% is statistically evident, the issue of illegal immigration remains a serious concern, especially in light of media reports indicating continued infiltration from Bangladesh.
The concern has heightened amid political instability in Bangladesh, particularly following the fall of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government.
This reality has prompted demands from several political parties for SIR-like exercises in Tripura, similar to what has been initiated in Bihar, to ensure the integrity of the electoral rolls.
Opposition Voices Fear of Voter Disenfranchisement
However, not everyone is on board. Critics of SIR fear that such exercises may be misused to target genuine citizens under the pretext of identifying illegal immigrants. Opposition parties allege that the process could lead to harassment of residents and wrongful deletion of names from electoral rolls — effectively stripping citizens of their voting rights.
Call for Inclusive Consultation and Transparent Execution
Given the socio-political sensitivities unique to Tripura, experts and political observers argue that any such verification drive must be carried out with extreme caution.
It is crucial for the ECI to engage in comprehensive consultations with all major stakeholders in the state to gain a nuanced understanding of its cultural, ethnic, and political dynamics. “No mad rush, please”, a veteran journalist said in the context of SIR implementation.
For Tripura, a state with a complex demographic history and geopolitical vulnerabilities, SIR could be a necessary step — but only if backed by transparent, fool-proof mechanisms that protect the rights of all communities and prevent misuse by vested interests, political observers said.
