Sonipat, Sep 29 Dr Montek Singh Ahluwalia, former Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission of India, delivered the Inaugural Dr Manmohan Singh Memorial Lecture on the theme “The Policy Agenda We Need for Viksit Bharat at O.P. Jindal Global University.
In a wide-ranging overview of the Indian economy and the decisions that have influenced it since the 1990s, Dr Ahluwalia discussed the past, present, and future.
Dr Ahluwalia served as Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission of India from July 2004 till May 2014. He has held several positions in the government earlier and has been a key figure in India’s economic reforms since the mid-1980s. He was awarded the prestigious “Padma Vibhushan”, India’s second-highest civilian honour, by the President of India in 2011 for his outstanding contributions to economic policy and public service.
Touching upon the past, he said, “We needed to take a comprehensive look at policy changes. For imports, a license was required. And that system was especially difficult for middle- and small-sized people, while it was easier for the big guys because they knew how to obtain licenses. The reason it was licensed was that the exchange rate was controlled. I think what 1991 did was to eliminate all of this. There was legitimate criticism that it wasn’t done all at once. Although the ideas were clear, there was a deliberate political decision to proceed gradually. I agree that it shouldn’t have been done all at once.”
“However, I do think it could have been done more efficiently than we did. This is always a problem if you do it in a gradualist way. The positive factor is that it gives people time to adjust. The negative aspect is that it also gives them time to lobby against the change, thereby altering the pace of change. That is why, although economic growth definitely improved, it was not on a scale comparable to China,” Dr Ahluwalia explained.
Dr Ahluwalia turned to the impact of change and the policies that will propel India over the next few decades of growth.
“The structural change in the world economy is very important. We are the fastest-growing emerging market economy. When people compare India to its own past or to other emerging markets, they tend to think India is doing quite well. In 1990, the share of India’s GDP in global GDP was not significantly different from China’s. But now, the more we look at India compared to China, India is nowhere!”
Dr Ahluwalia also explained the phenomenal rise of the Chinese economy compared to Western countries, such as the US and the European Union.
“The United States has had a slightly bumpy ride, but it is still 26.2 per cent of the share of global GDP. The decline is particularly evident in the European Union’s share, which has been declining since the 1990s. At that time, they held around 28 per cent of the global share. And now they have gone down to just about 17.4 per cent, against China is now 16.8 per cent.”
“The Prime Minister is absolutely right when he says, you know, I think it’s Reform, Perform, Transform,” Dr Ahluwalia said, speaking about the future.
“If you want to do better, you have to do a lot of things that will be politically difficult. Statistically, the growth rate over the last 11 years has been approximately 6.5 per cent, with a margin of error of one to two percentage points. You must increase by an average of 8 per cent from today to 2047 in real terms. As you move up the income ladder, it becomes more complicated because we know that a middle-income country is more sophisticated. Constraints arise, and you need to address them. And that’s not a simple case of eliminating some minor regulation or control; it’s about creating an institutional framework that can handle this incredible complexity. We need foreign investment, quite rightly, for foreign investors to come and make in India and make for the world. What must we do? It has to do with legal reform, contract reform, contract enforcement, and indeed intellectual property rights issues.”
Prof (Dr) C. Raj Kumar, Founding Vice Chancellor, O.P. Jindal Global University, said in his welcome remarks, “Universities around the world, including India, have developed a rich tradition of honouring the legacy of outstanding individuals who are no longer with us, and lectures are conducted to pay tribute to extraordinarily significant individuals who influenced the shape of history.”
Dr Montek Singh Ahluwalia, who worked closely with Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh, is an outstanding policymaker who helmed a critical position and responsibility in the government. His deep sense of intellectual integrity and his conviction are borne out of a profound understanding of public policy. With his deep sense of humility and self-effacing nature, he worked very closely with people, enabling constant dialogue and even disagreements, particularly when it comes to policy-making, something that we all need to recognise as important for governance. He also worked closely with the world of scholarship and academia, bridging the two together.
Introducing Dr Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Prof R. Sudarshan, Dean, Jindal School of Government and Public Policy, said, “Dr Manmohan Singh played a key role in the affairs of our nation. He was a core architect of the policy changes that India witnessed. Dr Ahluwalia and Dr Manmohan Singh were a great combination of first-rate scholarship and the ability to engage in practical policy-making.”
Reflecting on the contributions of Dr Manmohan Singh, Prof (Dr) Mrinalini Jha, Jindal School of Government and Public Policy, said, “Most people remember Dr Manmohan Singh for the dramatic turn he gave to India’s economy in 1991 as Finance Minister. After that, as the Prime Minister from 2004 to 2014, he negotiated some of the most important strategic partnerships and also legislated landmark social policies.”
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