Exit Polls Predict BJP Set for Historic Landslide in Assam

Massive Mandate for Himanta Biswa Sarma

Guwahati’Agartala, April 29 — The Assam Election 2026 exit polls released on Wednesday predict a landslide victory for the BJP-led alliance under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. Pollsters suggest the BJP could secure up to 121 seats in the 126-member house, significantly outperforming its 2021 results and leaving the Congress-led opposition trailing.

The exit polls for the Assam Assembly Election 2026 suggest a crushing victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). According to multiple high-authority pollsters, the ruling alliance is not only set to retain power for a second consecutive term but is projected to better its 2021 tally by a staggering margin, effectively decimating the opposition.

Quick Glance: Key Highlights

Dominant Projections: BJP-led alliance is expected to win between 85 and 121 seats.
Opposition Collapse: The Congress is projected to struggle, potentially falling to as low as 15 seats in certain forecasts.
The “Sarma” Factor: Analysts credit the surge to Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s governance and major infrastructure projects.
Regional Shift: The AIUDF is seen losing its grip on traditional strongholds, contributing to the BJP’s one-sided lead.

A Decisive Mandate: Breaking Down the Numbers

The projections provided by leading agencies suggest that the 2026 battle, once thought to be a high-stakes contest, has turned into a one-sided wave. The BJP’s strategy of focusing on “indigenous protection” and the “Development of all” appears to have created a massive gap in vote share.

According to Axis My India, the saffron party and its allies are poised to clinch a thumping majority by bagging 88–100 seats. In this scenario, the Congress—once the dominant force in the Brahmaputra Valley—is seen trailing at a distant second with only 24–36 seats. This data highlights a failure of the Congress to effectively position itself as a credible challenger to the Sarma-led administration.

Poll Agency	BJP+ Alliance (Seats)	Congress+ (Seats)	Others / AIUDF
Poll Diary	86 – 121	15 – 25	1 – 3
Axis My India	88 – 100	24 – 36	2 – 5
Matrize	85 – 95	25 – 32	3 – 6

The Collapse of the “Grand Alliance”

Despite a high-octane campaign by the Congress and its regional partners, the exit polls suggest their efforts have failed to gain traction. Matrize Exit Polls place the BJP in a commanding position with 85–95 seats, predicting falling fortunes for the Congress despite their attempts to corner the government on issues like inflation and unemployment.

One of the most significant takeaways from the data is the projected 10% vote share lead the BJP holds over the Congress-led alliance. In a state where 2021 results saw a mere 4% difference in vote percentage, a 10% swing represents a complete consolidation of the majority vote and a successful outreach to new voter segments.

Factors Behind the Surge: Delimitation and Development

Political analysts in Guwahati point toward two primary factors for this unprecedented projection:

Constituency Delimitation: The recent redrawing of assembly boundaries has significantly altered the electoral map of Assam. This exercise is believed to have consolidated “indigenous” votes in key districts, favoring the BJP’s narrative.
The AIUDF Factor: The decimation of the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), led by Badruddin Ajmal, has changed the math. Previously a “kingmaker” in the Barak Valley and Lower Assam, the party is now seen as a spent force. This decline has allowed the BJP to make inroads into territories that were previously considered opposition strongholds.

The Rise of “New Assam”

Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the state has seen an aggressive push toward urbanization and regional connectivity. From the expansion of the Guwahati medical hub to the inauguration of several new bridges over the Brahmaputra, the “Double Engine” government narrative has seemingly resonated with the youth.

Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma showing a victory sign during a massive election rally in 2026.

The BJP is expected to gain 20–30 seats more than it did in the previous cycle, a feat rarely seen for an incumbent government in the North East. (With IANS inputs)