As India ‘pause’ its military actions against Pakistan, Manas Pal, executive editor of Tripura Times and proprietor of Tripuranet.com explores The reasons behind this pause and its broader implications for regional stability.
Agartala May 13: In a surprising turn of events, India has temporarily halted its military operations against Pakistan, despite holding a clear strategic advantage. This decision, announced in early May 2025, has ignited intense debate among global analysts, raising questions about India’s motives, the role of nuclear risks, and the intricate interplay of diplomacy in South Asia’s tense geopolitical landscape. Below, we explore the reasons behind this pause and its broader implications for regional stability.
Why India Paused Its Military actions against Pakistan
India’s military was reportedly dominating the conflict, executing precise strikes that crippled key Pakistani military assets. Operations, including the highly effective Operation Sindoor-2, targeted critical infrastructure like the Noor Khan airbase, a suspected nuclear storage site. These strikes, leveraging advanced weaponry such as SCALP missiles and HAMMER bombs, significantly weakened Pakistan’s military capabilities.
Yet, India’s decision to pause was not a sign of weakness but a strategic maneuver driven by several factors including Nuclear Threat Mitigation and countering non-State Threats.
Hidden Dangers Behind the Battlefield
Although official briefings were limited and carefully managed—standard practice during wartime—certain international media outlets, notably The New York Times, hinted at a more alarming development. The bombing of the Noor Khan airbase allegedly resulted in damage to nuclear storage sites, raising fears of a potential radioactive leak. This scenario introduced the terrifying possibility of a nuclear disaster—not from deliberate launch, but from structural damage and subsequent fallout.
Strategic expert Derek Grossman from the RAND Corporation emphasized the implications, noting that the compromised condition of Pakistan’s primary nuclear warhead storage facility posed a grave threat. The destruction at Noor Khan risked destabilizing Pakistan’s nuclear command and control mechanisms, potentially opening a window for non-state actors such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) or factions of the Afghan Taliban—both known to aspire for nuclear capabilities—to seize dangerous materials amidst the chaos.
Adding fuel to this narrative, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi issued a strong warning, stating that Pakistan’s nuclear blackmail tactics were no longer effective—an indirect but telling indication of the extent to which Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence had been compromised.
Diplomatic Leverage
Amidst this unfolding crisis, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif sought diplomatic intervention. His appeal reached then-U.S. President Donald Trump, citing the catastrophic risks posed by a possible nuclear leak and the looming threat of terrorist exploitation. Recognizing the global security implications, Trump reached out to Prime Minister Modi, requesting de-escalation to prevent a nuclear catastrophe.
India set strict conditions for the pause, insisting on direct military-to-military communication with Pakistan, rejecting third-party mediation, and maintaining stringent policies like trade restrictions and visa bans. This approach ensured that Pakistan gained no diplomatic or economic concessions, reinforcing India’s dominance in the negotiations.
PM Modi rejected any form of third-party mediation, especially from the United States, and instead set forth a clear set of conditions for pausing hostilities:
- Direct Dialogue Only: India insisted that any appeal to end military actions must come directly from Pakistan’s military leadership—not through intermediaries like the U.S. or international bodies.
- Avoidance of a Formal Ceasefire Label: India carefully avoided using the term “ceasefire,” emphasizing that the pause in hostilities was a temporary and tactical measure, not a sign of strategic compromise or diplomatic settlement.
- Zero Tolerance Policy on Terrorism: The Indian government reiterated that any cross-border terrorist activity during the pause would be deemed an act of war, justifying immediate retaliation.
- No Change in Existing Policies: Measures related to the Indus Waters Treaty, bilateral trade restrictions, and visa bans would remain unchanged, ensuring that Pakistan gained no diplomatic or economic leverage from the pause.
The Role of International Diplomacy
After understanding India’s non-negotiable stance, Pakistan’s Director General of Military Operations (DGMO), Major General Kashif Abdullah, directly contacted his Indian counterpart, Lieutenant General Rajiv Ghai, requesting a cessation of strikes under the specified terms. This direct military-to-military engagement ultimately led to the halting of further operations. This backchannel communication underscored India’s insistence on controlling the narrative and terms of the pause, avoiding any formal “ceasefire” label to maintain flexibility for future actions.
However, President Trump complicated matters by prematurely announcing on social media that he had successfully mediated peace between the two nations. This announcement, made before India officially acknowledged any pause in action, sparked confusion across diplomatic and media circles. It falsely painted the U.S. as the central actor behind the de-escalation, overshadowing India’s carefully crafted and autonomous strategic maneuver.
OPERATION SINDOOR
Consequent to the ceasefire and airspace violations on night of 10-11 May 2025, #GeneralUpendraDwivedi, #COAS reviewed the security situation with the Army Commanders of the Western Borders.
The #COAS has granted full authority to the Army Commanders for… pic.twitter.com/kyWGwePqN0
— ADG PI – INDIAN ARMY (@adgpi) May 11, 2025
India’s Strategic Messaging
India’s pause is a masterclass in balancing military prowess with diplomatic foresight. Prime Minister Modi’s public statements underscored that Pakistan’s nuclear posturing no longer holds sway, signaling a shift in the regional power dynamic. By halting operations, India not only averted a potential catastrophe but also reinforced its zero-tolerance policy on cross-border terrorism, warning that any violations during the pause would prompt immediate retaliation.
| Related feature: India has ‘legitimate right’ to act in self-defence against Pakistan: Former US NSA |
Implications for South Asia
This development highlights the precarious nature of nuclear-armed rivalries in South Asia. India’s calculated pause demonstrates its ability to navigate complex security challenges while projecting strength and restraint. However, the temporary halt does not resolve underlying tensions, and the region remains on edge, with Indian militaries on high alert.
