New Delhi, July 21 The increasing resistance to antibiotics may not only lead to an increase in deaths but may also surge treatment costs from the current $66 billion per year to $159 billion per year by 2050, according to a study.
Antibiotic-resistant bacteria or superbugs, which emerge due to the misuse and overuse of antibiotics, can increase the number of hospital admissions and lead to longer and more intensive hospital stays. Resistant infections are roughly twice as expensive to treat as those for which antibiotics are effective, posing a significant threat to global health and economic stability. However, its impact would be more pronounced in low- and middle-income countries, noted the study.
The study by the think tank Center for Global Development integrates human health burden projections with economic models to provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of AMR on global economies and health systems.
“We estimate that the impact of antimicrobial resistance falls most heavily on low- and lower-middle-income countries. Antimicrobial resistance increases the cost of health care by $66 billion, and this will rise to $159 billion in our business-as-usual scenario where resistance rates follow historical trends,” said the researchers, led by Anthony McDonnell, a policy fellow at the Center for Global Development.
The study adopted a multifaceted approach to estimate the economic burden of AMR. Projections of the health burden were taken from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which estimates deaths from AMR to soar by 60 per cent by 2050. The numbers of those becoming seriously ill from drug-resistant bacteria are also expected to jump.
Health burden estimates from the IHME suggest that if resistance follows trends since 1990, AMR will lead to 38.5 million deaths between 2025 and 2050.
“If resistance rates follow historical trends since 1990, the direct health care costs of AMR are projected to rise to $159 billion per year by 2050 (1.2 per cent of global health expenditure). This increase is attributed to higher treatment intensities and economic growth in regions most affected by AMR,” the researchers said.
The study called for improving innovation and access to high-quality treatment.
It showed that if nobody died from AMR, “the global population will be 22.2 million larger by 2050”.
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